Economics · Polymarket

Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?

Q: What is the current probability for "Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?"?

As of the latest build, live consensus prices this at 88%. See the live page for real-time odds and full price history.

Q: Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket — see the link on this page for the live order book.

Trade on Polymarket →

88.00%

Model projection: 90.2% in 14d (84.9–93.8%)+0.00pt/dayaccuracy →

Executive Briefing

Live Polymarket consensus prices "Yes" at 88% on "Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?", backed by $3.8K in 24h trading volume.

Stats

24h Volume: $3.8K
Momentum: +0.00pt/day

Your call

The market says 88.0%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

Is this price right?

Take a position

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True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side

Order

PolymarketLive order book

Quoted price88.00%

Spread + depth+1.46 pts

Fee0.00% of stake

Break-even probability89.46%

1118

$118

Net if it wins

Live Order Book Depth

Spread

2.0¢ (2.3%)

Mid Price

88.0¢

Total Depth (shown levels)

$15,663

Bid/Ask Imbalance

60% bid

Bids (Buy)

87.0¢41

86.0¢1,244

85.0¢240

62.0¢400

61.0¢32

50.0¢5

43.0¢2,687

42.0¢836

Asks (Sell)

89.0¢634

90.0¢453

91.0¢296

92.0¢698

93.0¢1,511

95.0¢626

96.0¢14

97.0¢800

Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"

walking the real book

$100 order

89.00¢0.00%

avg fill · slippage

$1,000 order

89.46¢+0.52%

avg fill · slippage

$10,000 order

94.32¢+5.98%

avg fill · slippage

Book too thin to fill fully

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track (or no confident match found).

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 88.00%, based on $3.8K in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around October 29, 2026, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.