Economics · Polymarket

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?

Q: What is the current probability for "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?"?

As of the latest build, live consensus prices this at 37%. See the live page for real-time odds and full price history.

Q: Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket — see the link on this page for the live order book.

Trade on Polymarket →

37.50%

Current Fed Funds Rate3.63%as of 2026-08-01· via FRED (St. Louis Fed)

Model projection: 41.5% in 14d (38.1–45.1%)+0.01pt/dayaccuracy →

Executive Briefing

Live Polymarket consensus prices "No" at 62.5% on "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?", backed by $29.9K in 24h trading volume.

Stats

24h Volume: $29.9K
Momentum: +0.01pt/day

Your call

The market says 37.5%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

Is this price right?

Take a position

Sign in to take a position at the live price and have it scored — Brier, skill, and a personal calibration curve on your portfolio. Play money; no payment details anywhere on this site.

True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side

Order

PolymarketLive order book

Quoted price37.50%

Spread + depth+0.50 pts

Fee0.00% of stake

Break-even probability38.00%

2632

$1,632

Net if it wins

Live Order Book Depth

Spread

1.0¢ (2.7%)

Mid Price

37.5¢

Total Depth (shown levels)

$1,615,634

Bid/Ask Imbalance

17% bid

Bids (Buy)

37.0¢1,732

36.0¢39,320

35.0¢641,603

34.0¢89,943

33.0¢3,062

32.0¢10,000

31.0¢200

23.0¢600

Asks (Sell)

38.0¢8,916

39.0¢35,323

40.0¢15,664

41.0¢7,852

42.0¢5,717

43.0¢5,120

44.0¢5,020

45.0¢5,000

Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"

walking the real book

$100 order

38.00¢+0.00%

avg fill · slippage

$1,000 order

38.00¢+0.00%

avg fill · slippage

$10,000 order

38.66¢+1.72%

avg fill · slippage

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track — but this looks like it might be the same real-world bet (unconfirmed):

Manifold🇺🇸 Will the Fed raise interest rates in October 2026?

32.51%

Same bet?

Similar Economics Markets

Polymarket

▼ 224H

77.50%-344

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?

77.50%Live price only —
no history published

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?

0.65%Live price only —
no history published

VOL $446.1K

Manifold

32.51%+208

🇺🇸 Will the Fed raise interest rates in October 2026?

32.51%Live price only —
no history published

VOL 0 Mana

Polymarket

0.35%

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?

0.35%Live price only —
no history published

VOL $2.0M

Polymarket

0.05%

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?

0.05%Live price only —
no history published

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?

21.50%Live price only —
no history published

VOL $2.1M

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 37.50%, based on $29.9K in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around October 28, 2026, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.