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Economics · Polymarket

Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?

Trade on Polymarket →
41.50%
Wed 05Fri 07Aug 09Tue 11Thu 13Sat 15Mon 17Wed 19Fri 21Aug 23Tue 25Thu 27Sat 29Mon 31SeptemberThu 03Sat 05Mon 07Wed 09Fri 11Sep 13Tue 15Thu 17152025303540455055606570%41.50%MODEL PROJECTION
Model projection: 37.1% in 14d (25.0–50.9%)-0.01pt/dayaccuracy →

Stats

24h Volume
$5.7K
Momentum
-0.01pt/day

Your call

The market says 41.5%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

Is this price right?
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True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side
Order
PolymarketLive order book
Quoted price41.50%
Spread + depth+6.58 pts
Fee0.00% of stake
Break-even probability48.08%
2080
Shares
$1,080
Net if it wins

Live Order Book Depth

Spread
3.0¢ (7.2%)
Mid Price
41.5¢
Total Depth
$296,165
Bid/Ask Imbalance
2% bid
Bids (Buy)
40.0¢333
39.0¢179
38.0¢21
37.0¢5
33.0¢50
32.0¢391
31.0¢1,431
30.0¢455
Asks (Sell)
43.0¢5
44.0¢90
45.0¢94
46.0¢271
47.0¢500
49.0¢702
50.0¢100
51.0¢300
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
44.70¢+3.96%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
48.08¢+11.81%
avg fill · slippage
$10,000 order
79.23¢+84.25%
avg fill · slippage

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track (or no confident match found).

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 41.50%, based on $5.7K in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around October 28, 2026, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.