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Economics · Polymarket

Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?

Trade on Polymarket →
28.00%
Thu 0303 AM06 AM09 AM12 PM03 PM06 PM09 PMFri 0403 AM06 AM09 AM12 PM03 PM51015202530354045%28.00%

Stats

24h Volume
$8.8K

Your call

The market says 28.0%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

Is this price right?
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True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side
Order
PolymarketLive order book
Quoted price28.00%
Spread + depth+6.87 pts
Fee0.00% of stake
Break-even probability34.87%
2868
Shares
$1,868
Net if it wins

Live Order Book Depth

Spread
2.0¢ (7.1%)
Mid Price
28.0¢
Total Depth
$29,402
Bid/Ask Imbalance
1% bid
Bids (Buy)
27.0¢141
26.0¢194
25.0¢410
24.0¢124
23.0¢7
18.0¢21
17.0¢20
12.0¢5
Asks (Sell)
29.0¢645
30.0¢253
31.0¢107
32.0¢299
34.0¢75
35.0¢333
39.0¢99
40.0¢576
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
29.00¢0.00%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
34.87¢+20.24%
avg fill · slippage
$10,000 order
70.89¢+144.44%
avg fill · slippage

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track (or no confident match found).

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 28.00%, based on $8.8K in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around December 9, 2026, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.