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Economics · Polymarket

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?

Trade on Polymarket →
44.50%
Current Fed Funds Rate3.63%as of 2026-08-01· via FRED (St. Louis Fed)
Fri 07Aug 09Tue 11Thu 13Sat 15Mon 17Wed 19Fri 21Aug 23Tue 25Thu 27Sat 29Mon 31SeptemberThu 03Sat 05Mon 07Wed 09Fri 11Sep 13Tue 15Thu 17Sat 192530354045505560657075%44.50%MODEL PROJECTION
Model projection: 37.9% in 14d (30.8–45.5%)-0.01pt/dayaccuracy →

Stats

24h Volume
$11.0K
Momentum
-0.01pt/day

Your call

The market says 44.5%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

Is this price right?
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True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side
Order
PolymarketLive order book
Quoted price44.50%
Spread + depth+0.50 pts
Fee0.00% of stake
Break-even probability45.00%
2222
Shares
$1,222
Net if it wins

Live Order Book Depth

Spread
1.0¢ (2.2%)
Mid Price
44.5¢
Total Depth
$1,552,884
Bid/Ask Imbalance
8% bid
Bids (Buy)
44.0¢6,909
43.0¢13,093
42.0¢216,868
41.0¢2,565
40.0¢105
39.0¢100
37.0¢100
31.0¢200
Asks (Sell)
45.0¢6,993
46.0¢15,581
47.0¢16,247
48.0¢9,470
49.0¢372
50.0¢890
51.0¢1,118
52.0¢711
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
45.00¢0.00%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
45.00¢0.00%
avg fill · slippage
$10,000 order
45.68¢+1.51%
avg fill · slippage

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track (or no confident match found).

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 44.50%, based on $11.0K in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around December 9, 2026, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.