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Politics · Kalshi

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez — Who will win the next presidential election?

Trade on Kalshi →
11.50%
5.30% fee-adjusted
Jun 07Jun 14Jun 21Jun 28Jul 05Jul 12Jul 19Jul 26Aug 02Aug 09Aug 16Aug 23Aug 30Sep 064681012141618%13.00%MODEL PROJECTION
Model projection: 14.8% in 14d (12.7–17.2%)+0.00pt/dayaccuracy →

Stats

24h Volume
$32.6K
Momentum
+0.00pt/day

Other Real Candidates — 30 Total

Every other real Kalshi contract for this exact same question, ranked by real live probability.

J.D. Vance
21.50%
Marco Rubio
12.50%
Alexandria Ocasio-CortezViewing
11.50%
Jon Ossoff
10.50%
Gavin Newsom
8.45%
Kamala Harris
4.25%
Pete Buttigieg
3.55%
Mark Kelly
3.50%
Ron DeSantis
3.35%
Andy Beshear
3.00%
Donald J. Trump
3.00%
Josh Shapiro
2.70%
Tucker Carlson
2.25%
Rahm Emanuel
1.50%
Wes Moore
1.35%
J.B. Pritzker
1.10%
Donald J. Trump Jr.
1.05%
Gretchen Whitmer
1.00%
Thomas Massie
1.00%
James Talarico
1.00%
Hunter Biden
1.00%
Ro Khanna
1.00%
Tulsi Gabbard
0.65%
Glenn Youngkin
0.35%
Jamie Dimon
0.35%
Vivek Ramaswamy
0.30%
Greg Abbott
0.25%
Stephen A. Smith
0.20%
Nikki Haley
0.15%
Tim Walz
0.10%

Compare Across Platforms

Consensus (2 platforms, liquidity-weighted)10.67%
Platforms agree closely — 1.25pt spread.
PlatformQuestionLive PriceReal Bid / AskWeight
KalshiAlexandria Ocasio-Cortez — Who will win the next presidential election?11.5%11¢ / 12¢
33%
PolymarketWill Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?10.25%10.2¢ / 10.3¢
67%

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez — Who will win the next presidential election?"?

As of the latest update, Kalshi prices this at 11.50%, based on $32.6K in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around January 21, 2029, per Kalshi's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Kalshi. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Yes — PredictRankd has confirmed this is also listed on: Polymarket (10.25%). The real bid/ask-spread-weighted consensus across all 2 platforms is 10.67%. See the full comparison table below.