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Politics · Kalshi

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez — Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?

Trade on Kalshi →
64.50%
62.02% fee-adjusted
Jun 07Jun 14Jun 21Jun 28Jul 05Jul 12Jul 19Jul 26Aug 02Aug 09Aug 16Aug 23Aug 30Sep 06Sep 1335404550556065707580%66.00%MODEL PROJECTION
Model projection: 65.6% in 14d (62.4–68.6%)-0.00pt/dayaccuracy →

Stats

24h Volume
$0
Momentum
-0.00pt/day

Your call

The market says 64.5%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

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True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side
Order
KalshiLive best ask
Quoted price64.50%
Spread + depth+0.50 pts
Fee2.45% of stake
Break-even probability66.59%
1538
Shares
$514
Net if it wins

Other Real Candidates — 38 Total

Every other real Kalshi contract for this exact same question, ranked by real live probability.

Pete Buttigieg
88.65%
Andy Beshear
87.00%
Gavin Newsom
83.50%
Rahm Emanuel
82.00%
Kamala Harris
77.50%
Ro Khanna
77.50%
Wes Moore
76.50%
J.B. Pritzker
76.50%
Cory Booker
74.50%
Mark Kelly
69.50%
Jon Ossoff
68.00%
Alexandria Ocasio-CortezViewing
64.50%
Chris Murphy
63.50%
Josh Shapiro
60.00%
Mitch Landrieu
60.00%
Chris Van Hollen
43.00%
Raphael Warnock
40.00%
Elissa Slotkin
39.50%
Jared Polis
39.00%
Ruben Gallego
33.50%
Gretchen Whitmer
27.50%
Amy Klobuchar
26.50%
Phil Murphy
25.50%
Stephen A. Smith
22.50%
Dean Phillips
22.50%
Shawn Fain
22.50%
Mikie Sherrill
19.50%
John Fetterman
18.50%
James Talarico
17.00%
Jon Stewart
14.50%
Abigail Spanberger
13.15%
Roy Cooper
12.15%
Hunter Biden
11.20%
Mark Cuban
10.75%
Michelle Obama
8.00%
Tim Walz
7.50%
Hillary Clinton
2.95%
Barack Obama
2.60%

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Not listed on another platform we track (or no confident match found).

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez — Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?"?

As of the latest update, Kalshi prices this at 64.50%, based on $0 in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around January 1, 2028, per Kalshi's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Kalshi. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Polymarket, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.