Economics · Polymarket

Will Japan's core-core CPI increase by less than or equal to 1.9% in 2026?

Q: What is the current probability for "Will Japan's core-core CPI increase by less than or equal to 1.9% in 2026?"?

As of the latest build, live consensus prices this at 31%. See the live page for real-time odds and full price history.

Q: Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket — see the link on this page for the live order book.

Trade on Polymarket →

30.50%

Current CPI Inflation (YoY)3.4%as of 2026-08-01· via FRED (St. Louis Fed)

Model projection: 26.9% in 14d (18.7–37.1%)-0.01pt/dayaccuracy →

Executive Briefing

Live Polymarket consensus prices "No" at 69.5% on "Will Japan's core-core CPI increase by less than or equal to 1.9% in 2026?", backed by $1.6K in 24h trading volume.

Stats

24h Volume: $1.6K
Momentum: -0.01pt/day

Your call

The market says 30.5%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

Is this price right?

Take a position

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True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side

Order

PolymarketLive order book

Quoted price30.50%

Spread + depth+39.78 pts

Fee0.00% of stake

Break-even probability70.28%

1423

$423

Net if it wins

The book cannot fill this whole order. The figures above cover only the part that would fill — the rest has no price on this venue right now.

Live Order Book Depth

Spread

3.0¢ (9.8%)

Mid Price

30.5¢

Total Depth (shown levels)

$732

Bid/Ask Imbalance

8% bid

Bids (Buy)

29.0¢130

28.0¢20

27.0¢5

24.0¢20

23.0¢15

10.0¢30

3.0¢40

1.0¢13

Asks (Sell)

32.0¢74

33.0¢180

38.0¢5

43.0¢40

49.0¢20

58.0¢10

59.0¢20

60.0¢5

Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"

walking the real book

$100 order

34.01¢+6.29%

avg fill · slippage

$1,000 order

70.28¢+119.64%

avg fill · slippage

Book too thin to fill fully

$10,000 order

70.28¢+119.64%

avg fill · slippage

Book too thin to fill fully

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track (or no confident match found).

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will Japan's core-core CPI increase by less than or equal to 1.9% in 2026?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 30.50%, based on $1.6K in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around February 12, 2027, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.