Economics · Polymarket

Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% in September?

Q: What is the current probability for "Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% in September?"?

As of the latest build, live consensus prices this at 28%. See the live page for real-time odds and full price history.

Q: Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket — see the link on this page for the live order book.

Trade on Polymarket →

34.00%

Current CPI Inflation (YoY)3.4%as of 2026-08-01· via FRED (St. Louis Fed)

Executive Briefing

Live Polymarket consensus prices "No" at 66% on "Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% in September?", backed by $1.0K in 24h trading volume.

Stats

24h Volume: $1.0K

Your call

The market says 34.0%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

Is this price right?

Take a position

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True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side

Order

PolymarketLive order book

Quoted price34.00%

Spread + depth+33.96 pts

Fee0.00% of stake

Break-even probability67.96%

1471

$471

Net if it wins

Live Order Book Depth

Spread

2.0¢ (5.9%)

Mid Price

34.0¢

Total Depth (shown levels)

$2,681

Bid/Ask Imbalance

16% bid

Bids (Buy)

33.0¢20

32.0¢30

31.0¢239

30.0¢220

27.0¢45

26.0¢245

25.0¢200

21.0¢239

Asks (Sell)

35.0¢60

49.0¢30

50.0¢13

54.0¢30

55.0¢70

56.0¢20

57.0¢50

59.0¢18

Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"

walking the real book

$100 order

47.96¢+37.04%

avg fill · slippage

$1,000 order

67.96¢+94.18%

avg fill · slippage

$10,000 order

74.81¢+113.74%

avg fill · slippage

Book too thin to fill fully

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track (or no confident match found).

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% in September?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 34.00%, based on $1.0K in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around October 15, 2026, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.