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Sports · Polymarket

Will Japan win on 2026-09-28?

Trade on Polymarket →
80.50%
81.6% calibrated
Tue 15Wed 16Thu 17Fri 18Sat 19Sep 20Mon 21Tue 22Wed 23Thu 24Fri 25Sat 26Sep 27Mon 284045505560657075808590%80.50%

Stats

24h Volume
$162.3K

Your call

The market says 80.5%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

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True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side
Order
PolymarketLive order book
Quoted price80.50%
Spread + depth+0.50 pts
Fee0.00% of stake
Break-even probability81.00%
1235
Shares
$235
Net if it wins

Live Order Book Depth

Spread
1.0¢ (1.2%)
Mid Price
80.5¢
Total Depth
$354,081
Bid/Ask Imbalance
18% bid
Bids (Buy)
80.0¢11,858
79.0¢7,379
78.0¢14,066
77.0¢11,778
76.0¢8,112
75.0¢1,438
74.0¢1,491
73.0¢607
Asks (Sell)
81.0¢8,114
82.0¢14,561
83.0¢40,871
84.0¢55,083
85.0¢22,818
86.0¢16,263
87.0¢9,065
88.0¢5,234
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
81.00¢0.00%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
81.00¢0.00%
avg fill · slippage
$10,000 order
81.34¢+0.42%
avg fill · slippage

Full Race — 7 Real Candidates

Every other Polymarket contract for this same real-world race, ranked by real live probability.

JapanViewing
80.50%
France
51.50%
Montenegro
38.50%
Korea Republic
37.50%
Türkiye
35.50%
Armenia
31.50%
Venezuela
6.50%

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track (or no confident match found).

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will Japan win on 2026-09-28?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 80.50%, based on $162.3K in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around September 28, 2026, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.