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Sports · Polymarket

Will Türkiye win on 2026-09-28?

Trade on Polymarket →
35.50%
37.0% calibrated
Wed 1612 PMThu 1712 PMFri 1812 PMSat 1912 PMSep 2012 PMMon 2112 PMTue 2212 PMWed 2312 PMThu 2412 PMFri 2512 PMSat 2612 PMSep 2712 PMMon 2810152025303540455055%35.50%

Stats

24h Volume
$39.8K

Your call

The market says 35.5%. Disagree cheaply, or put a record behind it.

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True cost to trade

The quoted price is not what anyone pays. Below it is the same trade with the spread crossed, the depth consumed and the venue's own fee paid — the break-even probability a buyer would actually need to believe.

Side
Order
PolymarketLive order book
Quoted price35.50%
Spread + depth+0.50 pts
Fee0.00% of stake
Break-even probability36.00%
2778
Shares
$1,778
Net if it wins

Live Order Book Depth

Spread
1.0¢ (2.8%)
Mid Price
35.5¢
Total Depth
$228,316
Bid/Ask Imbalance
25% bid
Bids (Buy)
35.0¢5,847
34.0¢38,331
33.0¢55,214
32.0¢39,689
31.0¢29,599
30.0¢300
29.0¢65
28.0¢65
Asks (Sell)
36.0¢58,521
37.0¢66,555
38.0¢53,142
39.0¢36,368
40.0¢16,875
41.0¢8,558
42.0¢21,617
43.0¢5,065
Estimated Slippage to Buy "Yes"
walking the real book
$100 order
36.00¢0.00%
avg fill · slippage
$1,000 order
36.00¢0.00%
avg fill · slippage
$10,000 order
36.00¢0.00%
avg fill · slippage

Full Race — 7 Real Candidates

Every other Polymarket contract for this same real-world race, ranked by real live probability.

Japan
80.50%
France
51.50%
Montenegro
37.50%
Korea Republic
37.50%
TürkiyeViewing
35.50%
Armenia
32.50%
Venezuela
6.50%

Compare Across Platforms

Not listed on another platform we track (or no confident match found).

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current probability for "Will Türkiye win on 2026-09-28?"?

As of the latest update, Polymarket prices this at 35.50%, based on $39.8K in tracked 24h trading volume.

When does this market close?

This contract is scheduled to resolve on or around September 28, 2026, per Polymarket's listed close time.

Where can I trade this market?

This contract trades live on Polymarket. You can view the live order book and trade it directly at the source link on this page.

Is this market listed on other prediction platforms?

Not currently listed on another platform PredictRankd tracks (Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur), or no confidently-verified match was found.