Oscars 2027: Best Actor
Oscar Winner: Best Actor
Live Win Probability
± margin = real Kalshi bid/ask spread| Nominee | Probability | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|
Jafar Jackson | 20.0% | — |
John Malkovich | 15.5% ±0.5pt | 16.45% |
Andrew Scott | 12.5% ±0.5pt | 17.00% (±4.5pt) |
Robert Pattison | 11.5% ±0.5pt | — |
Robert PattinsonPoly only | 8.4% ±2.1pt | — |
Charles Melton | 6.0% | — |
Jeremy Strong | 4.5% ±0.5pt | 0.80% (±3.7pt) |
Timothée Chalamet | 4.0% ±1.0pt | 2.55% |
Ryan Gosling | 3.5% ±0.5pt | 2.45% |
Pedro Pascal | 2.0% | 0.95% |
Sebastian Stan | 1.5% ±0.5pt | 3.05% |
Javier BardemPoly only | 1.3% ±1.0pt | — |
Josh O'Connor | 1.0% | 0.30% |
Channing Tatum | 1.0% | — |
Keanu Reeves | 1.0% | — |
Adam Driver | 1.0% | 0.30% |
Brad Pitt | 1.0% | 0.45% |
Tie | 1.0% | — |
Hanns Zischler | 1.0% | — |
Sacha Baron Cohen | 1.0% | — |
Jacob Tremblay | 1.0% | — |
Ethan Hawke | 1.0% | — |
Tom Holland | 1.0% | — |
Sam RockwellPoly only | 0.6% ±0.3pt | — |
Robert AramayoPoly only | 0.3% ±0.1pt | — |
Jaafar JacksonPoly only | 0.3% ±0.2pt | — |
John TurturroPoly only | 0.1% ±0.1pt | — |
Odds from Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange — not affiliated with or endorsed by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.
Odds Over Time
Odds-history tracking for another actor started today — check back as more days of real data accumulate.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favored to win Best Actor?
As of the latest update, another actor is favored at 50.00%, based on real live trading on Kalshi.
Where do these best actor odds come from?
Real, live prices from Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange — not a sportsbook line or a critics' poll. Each percentage is the actual price real traders are paying for a "Yes" contract on that nominee winning, which is why it can be read directly as a probability.
How often are these odds updated?
This page refreshes automatically as new trades happen — there's no fixed publishing schedule the way a pundit's ranked predictions have.
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