Oscars 2027: Best Picture
Oscar Winner: Best Picture
Live Win Probability
± margin = real Kalshi bid/ask spread| Nominee | Probability | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|
La Bola NegraPoly only | 10.0% ±2.0pt | — |
The Black Ball | 8.5% ±0.5pt | — |
Wild Horse Nine | 6.5% ±0.5pt | 8.00% |
Digger | 5.5% ±0.5pt | 4.50% |
Project Hail Mary | 2.5% ±0.5pt | 4.50% |
Avengers: Doomsday | 2.0% | 0.50% |
Fjord | 1.5% ±0.5pt | 6.50% (±5.0pt) |
The Social Reckoning | 1.5% ±0.5pt | 0.30% |
Behemoth | 1.5% ±0.5pt | — |
The Debut | 1.5% ±0.5pt | 0.90% |
Elsinore | 1.5% ±0.5pt | — |
TonyPoly only | 1.1% ±0.8pt | — |
Disclosure Day | 1.0% | 0.55% |
Michael | 1.0% | 0.75% |
The Entertainment System Is Down | 1.0% | — |
Artificial | 1.0% | — |
Narnia: The Magician's Nephew | 1.0% | — |
Werwulf | 1.0% | — |
Josephine | 1.0% | 0.85% |
Sense and Sensibility | 1.0% | — |
I Love Boosters | 1.0% | — |
The Adventures of Cliff Booth | 1.0% | 0.50% |
The Death of Robin Hood | 1.0% | — |
The Drama | 1.0% | 0.30% |
Ink | 1.0% | — |
All of a Sudden | 1.0% | 0.25% |
Cry to Heaven | 1.0% | — |
Tie | 1.0% | — |
1949 / Fatherland | 1.0% | — |
Paper Tiger | 1.0% | — |
Hope | 1.0% | — |
Minotaur | 1.0% | — |
Parallel Tales | 1.0% | — |
Jack of Spades | 1.0% | — |
Obsession | 1.0% | — |
The Invite | 1.0% | 0.05% |
Club Kid | 1.0% | — |
Being Heumann | 1.0% | — |
FatherlandPoly only | 0.3% ±0.1pt | — |
ClarissaPoly only | 0.1% ±0.1pt | — |
Saturn ReturnPoly only | 0.1% ±0.1pt | — |
Odds from Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange — not affiliated with or endorsed by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.
Odds Over Time
The Odyssey — 16 days tracked+4pt since 2026-08-12
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favored to win Best Picture?
As of the latest update, The Odyssey is favored at 57.50%, based on real live trading on Kalshi.
Where do these best picture odds come from?
Real, live prices from Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange — not a sportsbook line or a critics' poll. Each percentage is the actual price real traders are paying for a "Yes" contract on that nominee winning, which is why it can be read directly as a probability.
How often are these odds updated?
This page refreshes automatically as new trades happen — there's no fixed publishing schedule the way a pundit's ranked predictions have.
Other Categories
Best DirectorBest ActorBest ActressBest Supporting ActorBest Supporting ActressBest Animated FeatureBest International FeatureBest Documentary FeatureBest Original SongBest Original ScoreBest SoundBest Visual EffectsBest Costume DesignBest Production DesignBest Film EditingBest CinematographyBest Adapted ScreenplayBest Original Screenplay