Oscars 2027: Best Supporting Actor
Oscar winner: Best Supporting Actor
Live Win Probability
± margin = real Kalshi bid/ask spread| Nominee | Probability | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|
Guy PearcePoly only | 15.0% ±3.0pt | — |
Robert Pattinson | 12.5% ±0.5pt | 9.30% (±3.2pt) |
John Goodman | 10.0% ±1.0pt | 7.00% |
Sam Rockwell | 4.5% ±2.5pt | 6.65% |
Edward Norton | 4.5% ±0.5pt | 5.00% |
Tom Holland | 3.0% ±1.0pt | 3.95% |
Travis ScottPoly only | 2.6% ±2.4pt | — |
Steve Buscemi | 2.5% ±1.5pt | 4.10% |
Jesse Plemons | 2.0% ±1.0pt | 4.45% |
Jeremy Strong | 1.5% ±0.5pt | 4.40% |
James Ortiz | 1.5% ±0.5pt | 0.60% |
Channing Tatum | 1.0% | 2.35% |
Colman Domingo | 1.0% | 3.50% |
Charles Melton | 1.0% | 1.25% |
Miles Teller | 1.0% | 4.25% (±3.3pt) |
Jacques Berman Webster II (Travis Scott) | 1.0% | — |
Michael Fassbender | 1.0% | 2.55% |
Riz Ahmed | 1.0% | 4.15% (±3.2pt) |
Daniel Craig | 1.0% | 3.95% |
Robert De Niro | 1.0% | 4.90% (±3.9pt) |
Adam Scott | 1.0% | 1.60% |
Himesh Patel | 1.0% | 3.95% |
Tie | 1.0% | — |
Odds from Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange — not affiliated with or endorsed by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.
Odds Over Time
Odds-history tracking for another actor started today — check back as more days of real data accumulate.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favored to win Best Supporting Actor?
As of the latest update, another actor is favored at 50.00%, based on real live trading on Kalshi.
Where do these best supporting actor odds come from?
Real, live prices from Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange — not a sportsbook line or a critics' poll. Each percentage is the actual price real traders are paying for a "Yes" contract on that nominee winning, which is why it can be read directly as a probability.
How often are these odds updated?
This page refreshes automatically as new trades happen — there's no fixed publishing schedule the way a pundit's ranked predictions have.
Other Categories