Oscars 2027: Best Documentary Feature
Oscar Winner: Best Documentary Feature Film
Live Win Probability
± margin = real Kalshi bid/ask spread| Nominee | Probability | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|
Nuisance Bear | 6.5% ±4.5pt | 13.50% (±7.0pt) |
One in a Million | 6.5% ±4.5pt | 13.50% (±7.0pt) |
Sometimes, I Imagine Them All at a Party | 6.5% ±4.5pt | 6.75% |
Tutu | 6.5% ±3.5pt | 7.05% |
Tie | 4.0% | — |
Odds from Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange — not affiliated with or endorsed by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favored to win Best Documentary Feature?
As of the latest update, American Doctor is favored at 25.50%, based on real live trading on Kalshi.
Where do these best documentary feature odds come from?
Real, live prices from Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange — not a sportsbook line or a critics' poll. Each percentage is the actual price real traders are paying for a "Yes" contract on that nominee winning, which is why it can be read directly as a probability.
How often are these odds updated?
This page refreshes automatically as new trades happen — there's no fixed publishing schedule the way a pundit's ranked predictions have.
Other Categories
Best PictureBest DirectorBest ActorBest ActressBest Supporting ActorBest Supporting ActressBest Animated FeatureBest International FeatureBest Original SongBest Original ScoreBest SoundBest Visual EffectsBest Costume DesignBest Production DesignBest Film EditingBest CinematographyBest Adapted ScreenplayBest Original Screenplay