Oscars 2027: Best Actress
Oscar winner: Best Actress
Live Win Probability
± margin = real Kalshi bid/ask spread| Nominee | Probability | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|
Sandra Hüller | 13.5% ±1.5pt | 11.95% |
Renate Reinsve | 12.0% ±1.0pt | 13.50% |
Anne hathaway | 6.5% ±0.5pt | — |
Ruth MadeleyPoly only | 6.0% ±4.0pt | — |
Sophie OkonedoPoly only | 5.5% ±3.5pt | — |
Michelle WilliamsPoly only | 4.5% ±4.1pt | — |
Virginie EfiraPoly only | 4.0% ±3.0pt | — |
Léa SeydouxPoly only | 3.0% ±2.0pt | — |
Olivia Wilde | 2.5% ±0.5pt | — |
Cynthia Erivo | 2.0% | — |
Joan Collins | 2.0% | — |
Penélope Cruz | 1.5% ±0.5pt | — |
Mikey Madison | 1.5% ±0.5pt | — |
Rachel BrosnahanPoly only | 1.3% ±1.1pt | — |
Natalie Portman | 1.0% | — |
Scarlett Johansson | 1.0% | 4.35% (±3.3pt) |
Kirsten Dunst | 1.0% | — |
Dakota Johnson | 1.0% | — |
Tie | 1.0% | — |
Shailene Woodley | 1.0% | — |
Odds from Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange — not affiliated with or endorsed by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.
Odds Over Time
Odds-history tracking for another actress started today — check back as more days of real data accumulate.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favored to win Best Actress?
As of the latest update, another actress is favored at 50.00%, based on real live trading on Kalshi.
Where do these best actress odds come from?
Real, live prices from Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange — not a sportsbook line or a critics' poll. Each percentage is the actual price real traders are paying for a "Yes" contract on that nominee winning, which is why it can be read directly as a probability.
How often are these odds updated?
This page refreshes automatically as new trades happen — there's no fixed publishing schedule the way a pundit's ranked predictions have.
Other Categories