Oscars 2027: Best Director
Oscar Winner: Best Director
another director
50.0%±50.0pt
—Live Win Probability
± margin = real Kalshi bid/ask spread| Nominee | Probability | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|
Peter FarrellyPoly only | 8.8% ±8.5pt | — |
Jesse EisenbergPoly only | 5.5% ±4.5pt | — |
Alejandro G. Iñárritu | 5.5% ±0.5pt | 5.50% |
Aaron SorkinPoly only | 4.7% ±3.7pt | — |
Andrew Haigh | 4.0% | — |
Lance OppenheimPoly only | 3.7% ±3.4pt | — |
Martin McDonagh | 3.5% ±0.5pt | 3.60% |
Danny Boyle | 3.0% | — |
Joel Coen | 3.0% | — |
David Fincher | 2.0% | — |
Phil Lord & Christopher Miller | 1.5% ±0.5pt | — |
Na Hong-jin | 1.0% | — |
Steven Spielberg | 1.0% | 1.35% |
Tie | 1.0% | — |
Janus Metz Pedersen | 1.0% | — |
Ben Affleck | 1.0% | — |
Olivia Wilde | 1.0% | 1.45% |
David O. RussellPoly only | 0.5% ±0.3pt | — |
Bassam TariqPoly only | 0.2% ±0.1pt | — |
Jordan FirstmanPoly only | 0.2% ±0.1pt | — |
Odds from Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange — not affiliated with or endorsed by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.
Odds Over Time
Christopher Nolan — 16 days tracked+1pt since 2026-08-12
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favored to win Best Director?
As of the latest update, Christopher Nolan is favored at 65.00%, based on real live trading on Kalshi.
Where do these best director odds come from?
Real, live prices from Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange — not a sportsbook line or a critics' poll. Each percentage is the actual price real traders are paying for a "Yes" contract on that nominee winning, which is why it can be read directly as a probability.
How often are these odds updated?
This page refreshes automatically as new trades happen — there's no fixed publishing schedule the way a pundit's ranked predictions have.
Other Categories
Best PictureBest ActorBest ActressBest Supporting ActorBest Supporting ActressBest Animated FeatureBest International FeatureBest Documentary FeatureBest Original SongBest Original ScoreBest SoundBest Visual EffectsBest Costume DesignBest Production DesignBest Film EditingBest CinematographyBest Adapted ScreenplayBest Original Screenplay