Oscars 2027: Best Original Screenplay
Oscar Winner: Best Original Screenplay
Live Win Probability
± margin = real Kalshi bid/ask spread| Nominee | Probability | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|
The Debut | 9.5% ±4.5pt | 12.30% |
Digger | 8.0% ±4.0pt | 9.50% |
Fjord | 7.0% | 6.50% |
The Invite | 2.5% ±1.5pt | 4.95% |
Forgotten Island | 0.0% | 1.15% |
Josephine | 0.0% | 3.70% (±3.7pt) |
Fatherland | 0.0% | 2.35% |
The Adventures of Cliff Booth | 0.0% | 7.70% (±7.7pt) |
Club Kid | 0.0% | 3.50% (±3.5pt) |
Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma | 0.0% | 4.70% (±4.7pt) |
A Place in Hell | 0.0% | 3.55% (±3.5pt) |
The Black Ball | 0.0% | 7.30% (±7.3pt) |
The Odyssey | 0.0% | 3.45% (±3.5pt) |
Elsinore | 0.0% | 2.40% |
The Drama | 0.0% | 4.00% (±4.0pt) |
Tie | 0.0% | — |
Odds from Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange — not affiliated with or endorsed by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favored to win Best Original Screenplay?
As of the latest update, another film is favored at 50.00%, based on real live trading on Kalshi.
Where do these best original screenplay odds come from?
Real, live prices from Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange — not a sportsbook line or a critics' poll. Each percentage is the actual price real traders are paying for a "Yes" contract on that nominee winning, which is why it can be read directly as a probability.
How often are these odds updated?
This page refreshes automatically as new trades happen — there's no fixed publishing schedule the way a pundit's ranked predictions have.
Other Categories
Best PictureBest DirectorBest ActorBest ActressBest Supporting ActorBest Supporting ActressBest Animated FeatureBest International FeatureBest Documentary FeatureBest Original SongBest Original ScoreBest SoundBest Visual EffectsBest Costume DesignBest Production DesignBest Film EditingBest CinematographyBest Adapted Screenplay